🖐 Beating the bookies – how the online sports betting market is rigged | Hacker News

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pinnacle sports casino rigged - goffbobbdetopersi
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Oleksandr added a Kernel our dataset in Kaggle, the scripts implement a strategy that searches for arbitrage opportunities. We placed bets on all the events. My concern with arbitrage is that it is not easy to implement in real life, the main challenge being the logistic to place those bets.{/INSERTKEYS}{/PARAGRAPH} Could you please be more specific to avoid misunderstandings in the communication? Fair point. But you went the extra mile and made your code open source, wrote this thorough post and even setup the dashboard. How many of them are really out there? Hi, At first id like to thank you for your hard work and effort to go ahead and beat the bookies. There seems to be a special caste of people who can impersonate the dream of living from their gambling activities. What do the bookies say? {PARAGRAPH}{INSERTKEYS}While I read through these messages, one thorny issue kept haunting me. The success rate in any activity serves as a proxy of the difficulty of the task. I just thought this might be of interest to you. On a typical Saturday or Sunday, football games appeared on the dashboard from early morning Asia time zone until late evening America time zone. You need a sufficient initial amount of money to start betting. That was a true but incomplete answer. I will try to do that in the following paragraphs. Could we, perhaps, get a grasp of what it takes in terms of time, money and skills to build a profitable strategy if we shared our betting experiences with other gamblers? We made the dashboard public with the aim to allow other people to replicate our results. The development of a profitable betting strategy requires the appropriate logistics, and I learned the hard way that these should not be underestimated. And without a public disclosure of the success rate in the gambling industry, we have no way to test the difficulty of becoming a sustainable profitable gambler which, at least to me, raises some alerts. How it works? Preferably both. No history and no running? Number bookies. But as you point out, our total return was Just wanted to thank you for your work. In our paper, the return rate is calculated on each bet. You need either bank accounts in the countries where each bookie operates or you need to open accounts with intermediary payment services such as Skrill, Ecopayz, etc. To make a living out of sports betting with our strategy we need either an increase in the stakes we place per bet or many more than games per months to bet on. As moving money from one bookmaker to another bookmaker takes time and raises suspicion , it is preferable not to withdraw money very often from each bookmaker. If bookmakers did not limit gamblers who achieve sustained profit these gamblers could re-invest their profit into further betting e. There were proposals to force them to accept a minimum bet of 15 Australian dollars. Predicting the outcome of football games better than the bookies is extremely difficult, given the accuracy of the statistical models they have developed over the years see figure 1 of our paper for empirical support of this claim. Both ways, these tasks require time more on this below. This clearly does not pay for a monthly living in most countries around the world. Although any automated betting system should cope with these issues bookie by bookie, the creation of such a bot is absolutely doable. So to answer your question, I suppose each country has its own local regulations for admission rights. Sorry I think I misunderstood your question. Admittedly, there is room for improvement here. Technical skills. You can get a risk estimate by modeling uncertainty around the game outcome. We did not try arbitrage, but this is also a valid alternative. I will describe what it took us to deploy our betting strategy and what challenges we had to face. I decided to write this blog post to discuss what it means to be a sustainable profitable gambler, what it takes to beat the bookies, what we should expect when that happens and why, ultimately, I think the online football betting market is rigged. Anyways, cool dashboard and github repo, threw you some ETC to keep the server up. I already read this paper, and download the code from gihub , but the data is not the latest. Our strategy does not work with 1, 2 or 25 games, it requires hundreds of games see tables showing profits in our paper. For example, a bot could be created to automatically perform the search for advantageous odds and place bets on each bookie. Although the idea expressed in that sentence is technically correct e. We did not remove the bookmakers margin from the odds that are shown in the dashboard. And finding a bookie that will not limit your bets leaves your with fewer options basically no bookies, just exchange markets 4 , fewer games and lower odds. This seems to be a dangerous power to have, because it could be exploited. Has anyone been able to count these rare specimens? I agree, there are other ways of estimating the underlying probabilities than using the average. I do not pretend everybody to agree with my definition. Number of available games. You can place them in exchanges we get bets from pinnacle and betfair. In Australia there has been a debate over the minimum bets that bookmakers should accept from customers mostly for the horse races. Our dashboard provides advantageous odds across a range of 32 bookmakers; so we had to open accounts with most of them. And when an opportunity appeared on our dashboard, we had only a few minutes to place the bet before the odds changed at the bookie website. The problem -from the point of view of the clients- with the online betting industry is that there is no data available about the proportion of sustainable profitable gamblers that inhabit the bookies world. Or perhaps I should say it this way: we were ready to stay long hours in front of the computer screen waiting for our opportunities to appear. But is it worth it? My definition requires the use of statistical tests to objectively measure whether the returns of her bets are above chance level. Well, interestingly, the difficulties of programming such a bot are still NOT the crucial point. Although other strategies will surely vary in the details e. Not the ideal job, we would have made more than 4 times that money serving tables in a bar. With this definition in mind, I will address what I consider the most troublesome issues in the online sports betting industry. Bayesian models are well suited towards this problem. We did not have any justification to place bets on a selection of games e. If you are not, you need to learn them… or just pay somebody to do the job. These are typical tools for data scientists, and there is nothing special or too complex about them… if you are a data scientist. Once our accounts with the bookies were opened and the money deposited, we were ready to go! Our strategy requires a large number of games and a large number of bookies because the odds opportunities are scattered across several bookmakers. Can you make it with a couple of bookies? In contrast, according to my definition, these are NOT examples of sustained profitable bettors:. What about the success rate for sustainable profitable gamblers? This was especially intense during weekends because most football games around the world are played during weekends. Total profit. Bookmakers are in their own right to protect their business, they are into this activity for money, they care about their revenue, and they want to keep it that way. Hi, I wonder if your starting capital is USD and your profit is You are raising a good point here. This is a personal experience, and by no means should it be considered a universal model of betting strategy. More work to do this since you have to be placing say a Home bet on one site then offsetting the risk with Away and Draw bets on another site, but assuming offsetting wagers are placed more or less uniformly across books your returns on each book are going to look diluted from all of the offsetting wagers , which would help with the size limit issue. Our paper presents two main results — that by applying our strategy a gambler can profit in the long run; and that most bookies limit the accounts of those very same gamblers as soon as the strategy is deployed. Although this is a return of investment of If we only consider the weekend time, and we only consider 10 hours per day because we interrupted the wards in front of the computer to have lunch, dinner and shower , we can estimate that we spent hours in 5 months 80 hours a month for 5 months just for placing bets. No doubt about it. In our case, we decided to place the equivalent of 4 bets in each bookmaker. In the paper, you use an average, which is saying all the individual book lines contribute equally to the final estimate of game outcomes. Not sure how this would impact the cumulative return, since you probably have to pay a bit of value to place the offsetting bets, but you might be getting sizeable bets more consistently. Building the full set of technical skills for the strategy or even creating a completely automated system to run such strategy is only the first challenge of the task. In a casino, you really mean it 2. It caught my attention though that many people who reached out to us seemed to overlook the second take-home message of our paper. Well, it is true. Nothing wrong with using an average, it looks like it worked out. From these data we can estimate that being selected as an astronaut is more difficult or less likely to occur than being selected at Stanford or being awarded a competitive grant in neuroscience; the success rate provides an estimate of how difficult these tasks might be and how much competition we will be facing before we even try them. This strategy was tested with the data we provide in the repository, but we see no reason why it should not work with current games.